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CAPACITY CRUNCH

TRACKING GLOBAL RECOVERY
Airlines' global seat capacity continues to move closer to 2019 levels, with availability in the week commencing 11 April 2023 running only four per cent below the same week in 2019 – but 23 per cent above where it was this time last year. The gap looks set to further narrow in weeks 19 and 20 (early/mid-May) when global seat capacity is scheduled to reach 108.24 million and 108.42 million respectively compared to 109.68 million and 109.69 million in 2019.

INTERNATIONAL STILL LAGS DOMESTIC
Recovery in domestic and international seat capacity is notably different. For the week commencing 10 April, domestic airline capacity around the world was 2.1 per cent higher than the same week in 2019. Global international capacity, however, was 13 per cent below the same week in 2019.

REGIONAL VARIATION
While seat capacity has fully recovered and now even exceeds 2019 volumes in some regions, in others it remains well down on pre-pandemic levels. The chart below ranks the regions on international seat capacity in the week beginning 10 April 2023 versus the corresponding week in 2019 (Source: OAG).

^{(By seat capacity w/c 10 April 2023 vs corresponding week in 2019. Source: OAG)}

WELL CONNECTED
Mexico-USA remains the busiest country pair globally, with more than 4 million seats available between the nations in March 2023. European seat capacity has been ramping up over the first three months of the year, with Germany-Italy, Germany-Spain and UK-Spain among those with the biggest capacity increases. The UK features six times among the busiest country pairs, the US and Germany five times each, and Spain and Italy four times each.

^{(By seat capacity, March 2023. Source: OAG)}

CENTRE OF THE ACTION
Five US hubs were among the world’s busiest airports in April 2023, including Atlanta which retained its number one position from the same month in 2019. The only European airports to feature were London Heathrow and Istanbul. Among the current top ten, Istanbul and Guangzhou have seen the most capacity added back compared to March.

^{(By seat capacity, April 2023. Source: OAG)}

FLUCTUATING FARES
Airfares rose rapidly in 2022 as the world reconnected while airline capacity built back up. The average intra-Europe booking price peaked at $331 in July last year for customers of travel management company Navan. That figure came in at $273 in March this year – similar to the same month in 2019 when the average fare was $268.

TIME FLIES
The average booking lead time for customers of Navan has stretched back out to more than two weeks in Q1 of this year as confidence returns, and is now higher than it was in 2019. During the pandemic the average booking lead time for flights was as little as five days when uncertainty about travel restrictions and flight availability were rife.

SKY-HIGH AIRFARES
Airfares fell for the first time in Q4 of 2022 having risen month on month since the world reopened after the pandemic. Data from TravelPerk shows the average cost of flights booked via the company fell seven per cent at the end of the year but remain 34.5 per cent higher than in 2019.