The amount of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) being produced is set for an “encouraging” increase, but the industry will need incentives from governments to successfully make the switch to more eco-friendly fuels.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) detailed the likely trajectory of SAF production growth over the next few years at its AGM in Istanbul on Tuesday (6 June) when it also called for more government support and diversification of feedstocks for the sustainable fuel.
IATA is forecasting that SAF production is likely to rise to at least 69 billion litres by 2028. Last year, only 300 million litres of SAF were produced worldwide with demand from airlines far outstripping this supply. Although this figure still represented a tripling of production compared with 2021’s SAF output.
Production is set to accelerate in the coming years with more 130 renewable fuel projects being announced in 30 countries around the world, according to IATA’s figures.
Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general, said: “The expected production increase is extremely encouraging. Seeing this, we need governments to act to ensure that SAF gets its fair production share.
“That means, in the first instance, production incentives, to support aviation’s energy transition and we need continued approval for more diversification of methods and feedstocks available for SAF production.
“With these two measures successfully in place, we can be confident that the expected 2028 production levels will be realistically aligned with our recently published roadmaps to net zero carbon emissions by 2050.”
The aviation industry is expecting SAF to account for more than 60 per cent of the mitigation needed for the sector to reach its target of becoming net zero for carbon emissions by 2050.
SAF can cut emissions by up to 80 per cent compared with traditional jet fuel over the lifecycle of the fuel. It can be produced from multiple feedstocks including used cooking oil, agricultural and forestry residue, and animal fats.
Higher airfares
Meanwhile, a report by consultancy Bain & Company said that airlines were likely to have to start increasing fares from 2026 to meet the cost of decarbonising aviation.
Bain’s analysis said it expected SAF prices to remain “two to four times” higher than traditional jet fuel in 2050, which alongside the maintenance costs of new aircraft, would push up costs for carriers by an estimated 18 per cent by this point.
Jim Harris, co-leader of Bain & Company's aerospace, defence and government services practice, added: “Unfortunately, many of the technologies the industry needs to decarbonise are unlikely to be operating at scale by 2050.
“Leading airlines will develop a strategy to secure an affordable supply of sustainable aviation fuel, mitigate the rise in operating costs, and manage the impacts of declining demand as a result of higher prices.”